Weekly Mortgage Market Update — Mortgage Rates Pause After Jobs Shock — For Now
Calm Holds After Jobs Shock — For Now
Last week’s surprisingly weak jobs report set the tone for markets, and this week mostly consolidated those gains for bond markets — which is good news for mortgage rates. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) held the rally that began with the jobs surprise, and lenders had time to pass those improvements into consumer pricing. The result: mortgage rates stayed near the lowest levels we’ve seen since October 2024, giving Raleigh- and Triangle-area buyers and refinancers a short-term window of improved affordability.
What moved markets this week — the quick read
Factory orders fell sharply in June, led by a drop in aircraft orders — a negative for growth expectations and a tailwind for bonds.
Services activity remained positive but mixed: ISM’s services PMI eased to about 50.1, signaling barely positive growth while the report’s price component picked up — a mixed signal for rates.
Job openings (JOLTS) continued to cool, with openings slipping to roughly 7.44 million in June — another sign the labor market is softening. That helps underpin lower yields.
Consumer confidence ticked up in July to 97.2, showing households are slightly more optimistic, though concerns about jobs and tariffs persist.
Together, these signals left investors comfortable keeping bond yields lower, which translated into modestly improved mortgage pricing through the week.
Data highlights and why they matter for rates
Factory Orders: a clear headwind for growth
June’s factory orders plunged (~-4.8% m/m), reversing prior gains and highlighting weakness in durable goods, especially commercial aircraft. That kind of soft industrial data reduces growth expectations and makes long-term bonds more attractive — pushing yields down and helping mortgage rates. Reuters’ coverage captured the sharpness of the decline and its drivers.
Services sector: slow but not dead
July’s services PMI readings showed the sector is expanding, but barely. The ISM services index landing near 50.1 signals tepid growth; at the same time, the report’s prices-paid component rose, which could support inflation. Markets weighed the slowdown in activity more heavily than the price uptick, which helped keep yields softer overall.
Labor demand keeps cooling — JOLTS falls
The June JOLTS report showed job openings fell to about 7.437 million, down from May — an additional datapoint pointing to cooling labor demand and a potential pathway to future Fed accommodation. Falling openings are meaningful because they reduce the odds of inflation re-accelerating through tight labor markets, making bond buyers more comfortable and supporting lower mortgage rates.
Consumer confidence edges higher
The Conference Board’s July consumer confidence reading rose to 97.2, a modest improvement. Better sentiment can support spending and growth, but markets will watch whether that optimism translates into inflationary pressure. For now, the combination of cooling job openings and steady confidence keeps the outlook mixed.
How mortgage rates behaved this week
Lenders generally kept rate sheets steady near recent lows. With bond yields trending lower on the combination of soft factory orders and cooling labor demand, the average 30-year fixed remained around the multi-month lows (mid-6% range depending on borrower profile and loan product). This provided a brief affordability lift for Triangle buyers—especially those who locked or shopped this week.
For purchase borrowers in Raleigh, Cary, and Greensboro, that translates to a little more buying power in an otherwise tight market. For refinance candidates (including VA IRRRLs and FHA Streamlines), the current pricing environment may make it worthwhile to run the numbers — especially if you locked at a materially higher rate in 2023 or early 2024.
Local angle — what this means for Raleigh and the Triangle
Buyers: A stable, lower-rate environment helps when putting together competitive offers, especially in neighborhoods across Wake County (Raleigh, Cary, Apex) where inventory is still constrained.
Refinancers: Homeowners in Greensboro and across North Carolina who have 2023/early-2024 loans should check if a rate/term refinance, FHA Streamline, or VA IRRRL can meaningfully cut monthly payments or shorten loan terms.
Sellers & Agents: Even small rate changes (0.125–0.25%) can expand the buyer pool — staying rate-aware helps move deals across the finish line.
What to watch next week
Next week is one of the bigger ones for markets:
Tuesday (Aug 12): Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July — the big inflation data that could reshape near-term Fed expectations. Markets have been sensitive to tariff-related inflation risks; a hotter-than-expected CPI could propel yields higher.
Other data & speakers: Expect a steady drip of Federal Reserve Member speeches and additional macro reads that will be parsed for nuance on the timing of cuts and inflation trends.
Bottom line: the calm we enjoyed this week is fragile. If CPI surprises to the upside, long-term yields (and mortgage rates) could move quickly. Conversely, cooler inflation would increase the odds of earlier Fed easing, and mortgage rates would likely fall further. For Raleigh-area homebuyers and homeowners looking to refinance, this is a reminder to stay prepared and consider locking when your personal timeline and rate opportunity align.
Need local help?
At Certified Home Loans, we monitor these macro trends and translate them into local advice for Raleigh, Cary, Greensboro, and the broader Triangle. Whether you’re buying now, shopping rates, or looking to refinance with a VA IRRRL, FHA Streamline, or rate/term refinance, we’ll run the numbers and recommend a tactical plan tailored to your goals.
👉 Contact Certified Home Loans for a free rate check and mortgage strategy session — don’t wait for headlines to make your decision.
