Weekly Mortgage Market Update –Fed Holds Rates, Mortgage Rates Drift Lower

This short week—trimmed by the Juneteenth holiday—centered around the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, which reaffirmed a cautious policy stance. The Fed opted to maintain its benchmark rate at 4.25–4.50%, echoing recent messaging that emphasized patience amid mixed signals from inflation, labor, and global trade tensions. The central bank’s updated economic projections now signal two rate cuts by year’s end, though the outlook is split, with some policymakers urging a later start.

Inflation & Markets: A Mixed Picture

May’s inflation data continued to show cooling pressures, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI each rising a modest 0.1%, and the annual Core CPI landing at 2.8%—all more benign than expected. These figures gave bond markets room to breathe, helping offset concerns over elevated long-term yields.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield ended the week around 4.38%, while its 30-year counterpart stood near 4.89%, modestly lower compared to recent highs. The Freddie Mac average for a 30-year fixed mortgage nudged down to 6.81%, marking its third consecutive week of decline.

Fed Commentary Keeps Markets on Edge

Understanding the Impact of Fed Holds on Mortgage Rates

Remarks from Fed officials toward week’s end added nuance to markets. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested a rate cut might be appropriate in the fall if inflation continues to ease and the labor market softens. However, she cautioned against premature action given persistent uncertainty around tariffs and global dynamics. These measured tones helped mortgage spreads edge slightly lower as the week closed.

Housing Market & Economic Activity

Unfortunately, broader economic indicators remained tepid. The National Association of Home Builders’ sentiment index hit a two-and-a-half-year low of 32, weighed down by weak buyer demand and ongoing rate pressures. Retail sales and housing starts also softened this week, reinforcing a message of cooling economic activity.

📍 What This Means for Raleigh Homebuyers

For Raleigh-area buyers and homeowners, the current environment reflects a careful balance: mortgage rates are high by historical standards, but signs of easing inflation offer a path to modest decline. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady in June, while signaling only one possible cut before year’s end, highlights a cautious but deliberate approach to monetary policy. That uncertainty creates a narrow window of opportunity for strategic buyers.

With average 30-year fixed rates hovering around 6.81%—a welcome dip from the 7.15% peak in May—many in the Triangle market are weighing whether to move forward now or wait for further improvement. While these rates are still higher than the sub-6% lows seen earlier in 2025, they are a meaningful step back from recent highs and offer potential for refinancing down the road if the Fed’s tone becomes more dovish.

For motivated buyers and homeowners exploring a refinance, locking in a mortgage now can serve as a smart hedge against future volatility. With long-term rates driven largely by inflation expectations and bond market trends—not just Fed policy—there’s no guarantee of a steady downward path. Those who act early may avoid getting caught in the crosswinds of market shifts, especially as global trade policies and tariff news continue to introduce new variables into the rate equation.

In Raleigh’s competitive real estate market, timing and preparation are everything. Working with a trusted local mortgage broker can help you stay ahead of rate trends, navigate lender options, and seize opportunities as they arise.

🔮 Looking Ahead

Next week’s calendar is packed. We’ll see fresh reports on manufacturing and service sector activity (PMIs), existing home sales, consumer confidence, and the influential PCE index—another inflation gauge closely watched by the Fed. Combined with Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony, this data could shift market expectations and move mortgage rates one way or the other.

At Certified Home Loans, we’re closely monitoring every shift in economic data, interest rate trends, and Fed policy to help you make informed, confident decisions in Raleigh’s ever-changing mortgage landscape. Whether you’re purchasing your first home, upgrading to your dream house, or considering a refinance to take advantage of changing rates, our local expertise ensures you get tailored guidance that fits your goals. With deep roots in the Raleigh community and decades of combined experience, we’re committed to helping you navigate the mortgage process with clarity, confidence, and a personal touch.