Weekly Mortgage Market Update – Jobs Report Reverses Rate Gains After Midweek Drop
This week was a classic tug-of-war between weaker economic signals and a surprisingly resilient labor market—leaving mortgage rates, once again, trapped in a familiar range of just under 7%.
📉 Midweek Momentum: ADP + Services Data Sparked Optimism
Early in the week, markets were cautiously optimistic. On Wednesday, private sector payroll data from ADP showed just 37,000 new jobs—the weakest reading since early 2021. Combined with a weaker-than-expected ISM Services PMI (49.9) and soft employment and price data in both manufacturing and services sectors, bond markets responded quickly. Yields dropped, and mortgage rates followed suit.
Mortgage lenders briefly priced 30-year fixed rates around 6.87%, offering hope that weaker economic activity might lead the Fed to back off its higher-for-longer stance.
Friday’s Jobs Report: A Reality Check
But Friday changed the tone. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report posted 139,000 jobs, above the 130,000 forecast. While not a blowout, the modest beat was enough to unwind the gains from earlier in the week. Bond yields rebounded, and mortgage rates moved sharply higher—landing back near 6.97%, according to MND’s index.
Wage growth and unemployment remained in line with expectations:
Average hourly earnings: +0.4%
Unemployment rate: Steady at 4.2%
Labor force participation: Slight dip to 62.4%
Markets interpreted this as confirmation that the economy isn’t cooling quickly enough to justify rate cuts just yet.
🧭 What to Watch Next
Looking ahead, all eyes turn to inflation. Upcoming data—including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)—will shape market expectations about the timing of future Fed moves. However, uncertainty over trade policy and fiscal spending debates in Washington may further muddy the waters.
Mortgage rates may continue to fluctuate inside a narrow band until markets receive a clearer signal.
💬 What This Means for Raleigh-Area Buyers & Homeowners
For buyers in Raleigh and across the Triangle, this rate volatility reinforces the importance of timing and preparation. Locking in a rate during brief dips can save thousands over the life of your loan. If you’re considering a refinance, now is the time to monitor the market closely and be ready to act.
📲 Need guidance? Reach out to the Raleigh mortgage experts at Certified Home Loans. We’re tracking rates daily and can help you plan your next move with confidence.
