Weekly Mortgage Market Update — Mixed Inflation, Weak Hiring — Mortgage Rates Hold Near Recent Lows

This week’s economic data offered a mixed picture: soft hiring metrics and muted wholesale inflation helped underpin bond demand, while consumer prices showed modest month-to-month strength that kept traders cautious. For Raleigh, Cary, Greensboro, and the broader Triangle housing market, mortgage rates largely held near the recent mid-6% range — a continued affordability window for buyers and a tempting refinance opportunity for homeowners who locked higher last year.

Quick takeaways for Triangle buyers and refinancers

• Mortgage rates remained steady after sharp intra-week volatility earlier in the month.

• Weak hiring signals continue to support expectations for Fed easing, which is generally mortgage-rate friendly.

• Inflation readings were mixed: some components cooled while headline measures showed modest month-to-month pressure.

  Understanding Mixed Inflation Trends

• If you’re buying in Wake County or refinancing an older loan, now is a good time to talk strategy.

What moved markets this week — the data that mattered

Job market: the continuing slowdown

Markets were watching labor indicators closely this week. The calendar showed notably weak private and public hiring signals: headlines that included a major negative nonfarm payrolls reading earlier this month continued to echo, and weekly claims remained elevated relative to earlier 2025 levels. The net effect: investors stayed willing to buy Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities on dips, keeping longer-term yields subdued. For mortgage borrowers in Raleigh and surrounding markets, that translated into relatively stable pricing and limited upward pressure on rates.

Producer Prices and wholesale signals were tame

Wednesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data surprised to the downside on a month-to-month basis, with core wholesale prices showing a small decline versus expectations of modest increases. Lower wholesale inflation reduces the odds of a sudden consumer price surge down the road — good news for bond investors and mortgage rates. Mortgage lenders often track PPI because persistent wholesale inflation can presage higher consumer inflation and therefore higher long-term rates.

CPI: headline and core show modest strength

Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed slightly stronger month-to-month headline inflation (0.4% m/m) than some expected, while core CPI held at roughly 0.3% m/m and core y/y remained in the low 3% area. In short, inflation is not running away, but it’s not yet comfortably below the Fed’s 2% goal. That left markets in a neutral-to-slightly-cautious stance — supportive of current lower rates, but unwilling to price in dramatic cuts without further evidence.

Consumer Sentiment slips; inflation expectations tick up

Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment print cooled a bit, and one-year inflation expectations edged higher, suggesting households remain sensitive to price trends. Elevated expectations can make the Fed more wary of easing too quickly. For the mortgage market, that dynamic means swings can happen quickly when any new inflation signal shows up.

Mortgage market flows and auctions

The week included a 30-year Treasury auction and regular Treasury issuance that were largely absorbed by the market without major dislocation. Mortgage application indexes showed continued refinance interest — especially for borrowers with older, higher-rate loans — even as purchase demand remained measured in parts of the Triangle where inventory remains tight.

Raleigh mortgage snapshot — what this week means locally

• Buyers: The current mid-6% rate environment gives Raleigh and Triangle buyers improved affordability compared with earlier months. In competitive neighborhoods, a well-timed rate lock can be a decisive advantage.

• Refinancers: Homeowners with 7%+ notes should evaluate VA IRRRL, FHA Streamline, and Conventional rate/term options now — the math often works to materially lower monthly payments.

• Realtors & Agents: Lower rates expand the buyer pool. Expect more pre-approvals and stronger buyer confidence when rates remain stable.

Looking ahead — key data for the week of Sept. 15–19, 2025

Next week’s calendar is busy and could easily shift market direction:

• Tuesday (Sept. 16): Retail Sales & Industrial Production — Retail control group and ex-auto readings are critical for consumer spending assumptions. Strong figures could push yields up; weak results would support lower rates.

• Wednesday (Sept. 17): Fed Interest Rate Decision & Projections — This is the biggest event of the month. Markets will watch the Fed’s statement, the updated dot-plot/economic projections, and the Chair’s remarks for forward guidance. Even if a policy rate move is already expected, the tone and new projections will drive rate markets.

• Thursday (Sept. 18): Jobless Claims & Philly Fed — Continued claims and regional manufacturing gauges provide additional color on labor conditions and price pressures.

• Friday: 10-yr Note Auction — Auction results can cause technical moves in yields and mortgage spreads.

Why it matters: Next week has the potential to be a turning point. A dovish Fed and softer retail data could push mortgage rates lower; conversely, unexpectedly hot inflation or upbeat retail numbers could reverse the recent improvement quickly.

Actionable advice — lock, float, or watch?

• If you’re under contract or closing soon in Raleigh/Cary/Greensboro, strongly consider locking to protect against headline-driven reversals next week.

• If you’re shopping and comfortable watching the market, talk to a local loan officer about a float-down option so you can lock now and lower the lock if rates move down further.

• If you’re a refinancer with a rate above 7%, run the numbers now — even a 0.25%–0.5% reduction can yield meaningful monthly savings.

Local help from Certified Home Loans — Triangle expertise

Markets are data-driven and can change quickly. Certified Home Loans Raleigh specializes in matching buyers and refinancers across the Triangle with the right mortgage product — VA IRRRL, FHA Streamline, USDA, and conventional loans — and in deploying tactical rate strategies to fit your timeline and risk tolerance.

Contact us today for a personalized rate check and a refinance or purchase plan that aligns with your goals.