Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Markets Await War Developments 04/24/2026

If mortgage rates followed a script, this week would be the slow build before a major shift. The market stayed unusually quiet. MND’s daily rate index moved within a tight 0.04% range since last Tuesday. That level of stability rarely lasts long.

For buyers and homeowners across North Carolina, this matters more than it looks. Periods like this often come right before rates move with more conviction. The last two times we saw this type of narrow range, rates broke out and moved quickly. That kind of shift impacts your monthly payment, buying power, and timing strategy.

In a market like Raleigh, where demand stays strong and inventory remains tight in many price points, even a small rate move changes how competitive you need to be. A sudden uptick in rates reduces affordability. A drop brings more buyers back into the market and increases competition.

Right now, the market is waiting. When it decides on a direction, it tends to move fast. This is the window where preparation gives you an edge.

The market’s hesitation right now comes down to one core driver. Uncertainty around the war and its direct impact on inflation, energy costs, and bond markets.

Here is what is happening beneath the surface.

The conflict has disrupted a critical part of the global energy supply chain. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing military activity has restricted that supply. This pushed oil prices sharply higher, with Brent crude climbing above $100 per barrel and posting double-digit gains in just one week.

When oil prices rise, inflation expectations follow. Energy costs feed into transportation, manufacturing, and everyday goods. That ripple effect forces bond investors to demand higher yields to offset inflation risk. As a result, Treasury yields move higher, and mortgage rates follow closely behind.

You have already seen this play out in real time. Since the start of the conflict, mortgage rates moved up alongside oil and bond yields, jumping from the high 5% range to above 6% within weeks.

Now shift to the other side of the equation.

Whenever headlines suggest a potential ceasefire or progress toward peace, oil prices pull back and markets stabilize. Mortgage rates respond quickly. Earlier this month, rates dropped as a temporary ceasefire reduced energy prices and eased inflation concerns.

This week sits right in the middle of those two forces.

• Oil prices moved higher again due to renewed uncertainty around ceasefire terms and enforcement
• Supply disruptions remain in place despite negotiations
• Markets are reacting to headlines, not long-term data

Even small shifts in tone have moved prices. Oil surged again this week as production disruptions continued and peace talks showed mixed signals.

For mortgage rates, that creates a holding pattern.

Bond markets are waiting for clarity before making a decisive move. Traders are not willing to push yields meaningfully higher or lower until they see whether this conflict escalates or de-escalates. That is why rate movement has stayed compressed over the past week.

For buyers and homeowners in North Carolina, this global story hits close to home.

• Higher oil prices increase inflation pressure and keep rates elevated
• Lower oil prices create room for rates to improve
• Sudden headlines can shift rates quickly within days

In a market like Raleigh, where affordability already sits near key thresholds for many buyers, even a 0.25% rate move changes purchasing power in a meaningful way. That can be the difference between qualifying comfortably or needing to adjust price range.

Right now, the market is not calm. It is waiting. When clarity comes, rates will respond fast in one direction.

Economic data was very light this week with Tuesday’s Retail Sales being the only big ticket report. Even then, the market preferred to trade war headlines and corporate earnings, with the latter helping stocks hit another all-time high.

Next week’s economic calendar is slightly more robust, but the market will likely continue to focus on the war-related headlines for primary cues. In addition to the data, there will be a Fed rate announcement on Wednesday, but the market has long since concluded that there is a zero percent chance of a cut or hike.

How about later in the year? With the DOJ dropping its case against Fed Chair Powell, some people expect a better trajectory for rates later this year under the presumed new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. But the traders who bet on those outcomes disagree. There’s been very little change in Fed rate expectations over the past several weeks. In short, before the war, the market thought we’d see at least 2 rate cuts in 2026. Now it sees zero. This could change in the future, but it would depend on inflation and economic data.