Weekly Mortgage Market Update: Mortgage Rates Holding Firmly Near Multi-Year Lows Amid Data Gaps
Despite an economy starved for fresh government data due to the ongoing federal shutdown, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) managed to hold their ground this week, keeping mortgage rates steady near multi-month lows. Even without the usual flow of employment and inflation reports, the bond market found balance as investors weighed recent Federal Reserve comments and a handful of key economic indicators. For buyers and homeowners across Raleigh, Cary, Apex, and the greater Triangle area, this stability translates into an extended window of opportunity, with rates remaining in a highly favorable range for both new purchases and refinances. While the lack of government data has muted some volatility, markets are still quick to react to any fresh signal, meaning acting now could be a smart move for those looking to lock in a competitive rate before year-end momentum shifts.
What Moved the Market This Week
Inflation & Data Disruptions
With major economic releases delayed, markets fixated on the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) published on October 24. Headline inflation rose 3.0% year-over-year, just below expectations of 3.1%, while core inflation held at 3.0%. The slightly softer print eased some rate-cut concerns and helped MBS rally modestly. At the same time, frenzy over missing job and manufacturing data kept traders cautious as the shutdown continues to leave big holes in the calendar.
Housing Market Strength
Housing data provided a supportive backdrop for mortgage bonds this week. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing-home sales rebounded in September, rising 1.5% month-over-month to a 4.06 million annualized rate. This is the fastest pace since February. Improved affordability, driven by lower rates, is helping to boost buyer activity, which in turn tends to support MBS demand.
Treasury Auctions & Fed Signals
Treasury auctions for 2-yr, 5-yr, and 7-yr notes came and went without major disturbances — a supportive sign for market technicals. On the policy front, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 4.00% at its October meeting, but commentary during the press conference struck a cautious tone. The market-favorite narrative is still anchored around eventual easing — and that helps mortgage bonds stay bid.
What It Means for Raleigh & the Triangle
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Buyers: For those shopping in Raleigh, Cary, Apex, or Durham, mortgage rates remain compelling. With MBS relatively stable, now is a strategic window to lock a rate before the next data shock.
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Refinancers: Homeowners who secured rates at 7% or higher earlier in 2024 & 2025 should revisit their options — streamlined programs like FHA Streamline and VA IRRRL are looking particularly attractive in today’s rate environment.
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Real Estate Professionals: For agents marketing in the Triangle, the combination of lower rates and rebounding sales gives you fresh momentum to push affordability messaging.
What to Watch Next Week (Nov 3–7)
With major government releases still limited, the focus shifts to private-sector releases and Fed commentary — both of which have outsized influence right now:
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Wednesday, Nov 5: ADP jobs, S&P Global PMI services, and composite readings — important signals amid the data blackout.
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Thursday, Nov 6: Wholesale inventories, Fed speeches — less headline-grabbing but still relevant for bond technicals.
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Friday, Nov 7: Consumer sentiment/inflation expectations — a sneak-peek into how households are thinking about price pressures.
Because the shutdown is delaying many typical indicators (jobless claims, initial jobless claims, etc.), markets may react more sharply to anything that actually prints. That means mortgage rates could be more volatile than usual, for better or worse.
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates remain near multi-year lows, supported by soft-ish inflation data and constructive housing activity, despite the backdrop of missing economic releases. If you’re buying or refinancing in the Triangle, this is a smart moment to talk strategy and lock a competitive rate. But remember: volatility isn’t behind us, and significant swings could emerge as the calendar starts to fill up again.
Whether you’re ready to dive into a purchase, streamline a refinance, or explore your options, Certified Home Loans in Raleigh is here to help you navigate this market with local expertise and tailored advice.
