Weekly Mortgage Market Update – Weak Jobs Data Gives Rates a Boost

Raleigh Homebuyers, Rejoice: Weak Jobs Data Gives Rates a Boost

Mortgage rates dipped to some of the lowest levels we’ve seen since early spring—thanks to a surprisingly soft July jobs report that rattled investor confidence but delighted the bond market.

A Calm Week—Until the Jobs Report

Throughout the week, mortgage rates remained relatively stable as investors weighed a series of major economic updates. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5%, in line with expectations. Markets didn’t flinch, as the Fed’s tone suggested a “wait-and-see” approach amid mixed economic signals.

Then, on Thursday, the June Core PCE inflation report—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—came in at +0.3% month-over-month and +2.8% year-over-year. These figures signaled slow but steady progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target, reinforcing expectations that rate hikes are likely behind us.

Despite the flurry of data, mortgage lenders held rates mostly steady. Both the Fed announcement and the PCE numbers were largely priced into the market, and neither provided enough of a surprise to spark major bond movement. The result was a calm, sideways market—until Friday’s jobs report blew it wide open.

Big Miss on Jobs, Big Move in Rates

The July nonfarm payrolls report missed big—only 73,000 jobs were added versus the expected 110,000. That’s a meaningful shortfall on its own, but what grabbed attention were the massive downward revisions to prior months, totaling -253,000 jobs. This signals a clear slowdown in the labor market.

For buyers and homeowners in the Raleigh area, this matters more than it might seem. A weaker labor market typically prompts investors to shift into safer assets like bonds—and as bond demand rises, yields (and mortgage rates) tend to fall.

Even more importantly, soft job growth makes the Federal Reserve more likely to cut interest rates in the coming months, especially if inflation continues to cool. While the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, mortgage markets react to the Fed’s outlook. So when jobs data points to economic slowing, mortgage lenders often price in future rate cuts early.

That’s exactly what happened Friday. As markets absorbed the disappointing payroll numbers and steep revisions, bond yields dropped quickly—and mortgage rates followed. By the end of the trading day, the average 30-year fixed rate had fallen by approximately 0.125%, bringing us within striking distance of the lowest levels seen since October 2024. For Raleigh-area buyers, that drop could translate into real monthly savings—and renewed affordability in a housing market where every rate move counts.

📉 Mortgage Rate Range (as of August 1):

30-Year Fixed: 6.625% – 6.75% (average)

🏡 Local Impact: Raleigh, Cary & Greensboro Buyers Take Note

This dip in rates gives Raleigh, Cary, and Greensboro buyers a much-needed affordability boost, especially in a competitive summer market where home prices remain firm but inventory is tight. Refinancers across North Carolina may also want to take a second look—this could be a window of opportunity.

For homebuyers in Raleigh, Cary, Greensboro, and surrounding communities, even a small drop in mortgage rates can make a big difference—whether it’s qualifying for a larger loan amount or reducing your monthly payment enough to make your dream home attainable. In a summer market where homes are still moving quickly and sellers remain confident, today’s lower rates offer buyers a rare edge.

Thinking of Refinancing in North Carolina?

Refinancers, too, should be paying attention. If you purchased your home in 2023 or early 2024, there’s a strong chance your current rate is higher than what’s available now. Certified Home Loans is helping homeowners across North Carolina lower their monthly payments, tap into equity, or shorten their loan term to save thousands over time.

Whether you’re buying your first home in Wake Forest, upgrading in Chapel Hill, or refinancing in Greensboro, the Certified Home Loans team is here to help you take advantage of this rate dip before it fades. Reach out today for a free, personalized mortgage review and explore your options while rates are still trending lower.

🧭 What’s Next?

The bond market will keep a watchful eye on August inflation data and—perhaps more critically—the next jobs report in early September. If labor market weakness continues, it could push mortgage rates even lower ahead of the Fed’s next meeting. But here’s a key insight for savvy borrowers: mortgage rates don’t always move the way you’d expect when the Fed cuts rates.

In fact, the last time the Fed cut the Federal Funds Rate in early 2024, mortgage rates spiked sharply in the days that followed. Why? Because bond markets had already priced in the cut ahead of time, and when it finally happened, investors shifted focus to other economic risks, causing volatility. This is a reminder that mortgage markets are forward-looking, and waiting for an official rate cut could mean missing the lowest point in rates.

That’s why timing matters. If you’re a homebuyer or potential refinancer in Raleigh, Cary, Greensboro, or anywhere in North Carolina, this could be your window to act strategically. Rates are improving now based on softening economic data—not because of Fed action. If you wait for headlines that confirm a rate cut, you may be a step behind the market. At Certified Home Loans, we can help you navigate this moment with clarity and confidence.

📞 Ready to Act?

Thinking about buying or refinancing in Raleigh or the Triangle? Let’s lock in a great rate before the market shifts again. Contact Certified Home Loans today.